Does Iran head towards war?
The situation around Iran continues to deteriorate rapidly. The US is not only trying to suppress Iran on the oil market, being quite successful in this direction but also intensively building up its military forces in the Persian Gulf. The US strategic bombers B-52H Stratofortress, a carrier strike group and missile destroyers were deployed in the region.
Iran, in turn, refused to fulfill certain commitments it made under the 2015 nuclear deal, having already sent relevant notifications to the participating countries. The European countries try to persuade Tehran to stay committed to the agreement, but in fact, they understand they can do nothing to save the deal, as it has become meaningless for Iran due to the US sanctions.
According to Michael Lüders, an expert on the Middle East, the nuclear deal with Iran failed, not least because of the lack of Europe’s fair position - mainly of the United Kingdom, France and Germany. These countries, despite the rhetorical support of the agreement, in fact, did not make sufficient to maintain trade and economic relations with Iran. “There are no more convincing diplomatic opportunities to resolve the issue between Iran and the US through negotiations, and everything points to the coming storm,” Lüders said in an interview with Dlf.
A similar opinion is shared by another well-known German political analyst at the DGAP think tank Joseph Braml. He believes that today the United States deliberately assemble a case for the military scenario. "All signs have long pointed to the war. Since Americans unilaterally broke off the nuclear deal with Iran, only two logical options have remained. Either Americans, Israelis and Saudis are reconciling that Iran can get nuclear weapons, or - and from now and on it would be like this - they will not agree with such status and deliver preventive air strikes against Iran, " Bruml said. According to the German expert, today's actions of Washington are nothing but immediate preparations for war. ”I’ve been witnessing this for a long time since the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s gig about the Iranian threat. Today, Saudis have become 'good guys' once again - and this is despite their image losses after the journalist Khashoggi’s assassination,” the political scientist said.
The expert is skeptical about the possibilities of the European Union, in particular, Germany, to influence the US plans: "The short-term cancellation of head of the State Department Mike Pompeo’s visit to Berlin became indicative. He rather unceremoniously dealt with us - ostensibly the leading European power." In this context, the Spiegel notes the following: “In foreign policy, the characters play a major role. Who visits whom and when, who forces whom and how long to wait — all these matters. Even in spite of the fact that the German government is trying in every way to disguise its annoyance, the cancellation of Pompeo’s visit is another sign of how precarious the relations between Washington and Berlin have become. ”
"For the EU, the deal with Iran was a diplomatic success, along with the administration of Barack Obama, the block tried to save the situation. Today, these efforts have been canceled and no longer make sense ... Europe cannot withstand the US pressure, European companies understand to who the future of their business is tied. And this is not Iran, but the United States. Those who do business in the United States or carry out transactions in dollars are forced to bend over to the military and economic power represented by the US, ”Bruml explained.
According to the DGAP analyst, Russia will not actively intervene in the situation. Moscow will protest, but it hardly comes to real intervention. Russia's stability relies on high oil prices, which is why the Kremlin, in Braml’s opinion, will be subdued. Saudis can also assist in this issue with a “check diplomacy”. Speaking about the position of his country - Germany - the political scientist recommended that in this situation, it is better for the FRG and Europe to stop relying on others and take the fate in their own hands, which in practice means only one: an increase in military expenditure.