German expert: "Europeans not to be able to fulfill Iran deal"

German expert: "Europeans not to be able to fulfill Iran deal"

"Perhaps in their speeches, Europeans sincerely want to adhere to the Iran deal, but they are not able to fulfill it," professor-macroeconomist Wilfried Fuhrmann said, speaking with Vestnik Kavkaza

"The Pacta sunt servanda principle (Latin for "agreements must be kept") today operates with a reservation "if possible." The call of European politicians to the EU companies to continue to conduct business in Iran, promises to provide them with loans and guarantees, for example, from KfW, as well as provide salvage packages to compensate for the damage caused by sanctions that can be imposed by the US, will remain a policy. French President Macron likes loud speeches and words, but as long as he does not have to answer for them. Such compensation will not be financially viable in an emergency situation, and the threat of its use actually calls for speculation against the euro, threatens with  collapsing stock prices with high losses for its owners and the subsequent outflow of capital from the EU to the US (to the delight of the US president) and thus threatens existence of the EU itself. An ideal lever for the US president," the German expert said.

According to Fuhrmann, the still open tariff threats of the US, the reality of which  are not in doubt by many, can split even the EU countries in a short time. "The United States is not Gulliver, who will let himself to be tied up with many small ropes. Washington is not ready to tolerate even short-term losses. Now they seem to create a hierarchical structure of dependent allied states (with their billionaires) such as Israel and Saudi Arabia," the professor stressed.

The analyst believes that the multilateralism tool will no longer function in the traditional understanding of many European politicians. "The US should increase its economic power and self-sufficiency if they do not want to economically depend on such large regions as the EU and China in the long term, and if they do not want to lose their unquestionable dominant role in the world as an economic and military power. But probably it is already too late, given China's  developed structures and its position in the China Sea, in the Silk Road areas, etc. In the current conditions of tripolarity (the US, China, Russia), stability should not be expected, like in the case of the Cold War during bipolarity. This was facilitated by many years of the US wars from Afghanistan to Syria and Europe. The "liquidation" of Russia seems impossible and, consequently, it is impossible to return to a new bipolar world architecture with the US and China as poles. The US can definitely turn into a "smaller" pole in the long term," the expert predicts.

"Of course, Europe may try to become the fourth geopolitical force, but the disintegration is much more likely here. As long as the EU does not convince the Ukrainian president, billionaire Poroshenko, to give cultural autonomy to ethnic minorities - Russians, Poles and Hungarians, the EU will not be perceived as a guarantor of pluralism and human rights, including the right to self-determination (Catalonia, Kurdistan, etc.), as well as a reliable harbor of values.

As long as the EU does not understand that Russia, despite all the differences, should be considered as a partner, Europe is not able to prevent becoming an arena-region for conducting proxy wars itself. As long as such investments as Nord Stream 2 face obstacles of a number of short-sighted countries because of their interest in transit revenues (Ukraine, Poland) and their own pipeline projects (Poland), Europe will play against Russia. Thus, by means of sanctions, it participates in the US policy of maximum pressure, which will continue to provoke an economic collapse of Russia (as it happened with the Soviet Union), or force Russia to choose between two fatal alternatives," Wilfried Fuhrmann believes.

"European security and stability can be separated from the situation in the Middle East only if European countries do not interfere in the situation in this region, violating international law. At the same time, European states pursue a policy of fatal errors, cementing Russia's image as an adversary, which has an adverse effect on the West and meets the interests of China.

Political and economic "competitive pressure" is growing between the European countries against this backdrop. Of course, politicians resort to diplomatic flattery and express their confidence in friendship and partnership in their speeches. But how can we regard (absolutely wrong in essence) French President Emmanuel Macron's tone and criticism about Germany in his thank-you speech at the international Charlemagne Prize ceremony in Aachen on May 10, 2018? In fact, it was as follows: Germany is not able to "persist in the eternal fetishism of the positive trade balance and budget surpluses," because it is always at the expense of others! Was that not political pressure and preachment on the part of an ambitious European leading power, which wants to win European financial control and wants to please the US president at the same time, despite all the alleged wrangling?" professor Fuhrmann summed up.


Vestnik Kavkaza

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