How to prevent Russia's direct military confrontation with NATO
The international NATO aviation exercises "Clear Sky-2018" kicked off yesterday in Ukraine with the participation of the US, Belgium, the UK, Denmark, Estonia, the Netherlands, Poland and Romania. At the end of last week, speaking at the meeting of the North Atlantic Council at the level of Defence Ministers in Brussels, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg one more time promised to allow Georgia enter the alliance, but only when it meets NATO standards.
Meanwhile, deputy director of the Center for Complex European and International Studies of the HSE Dmitri Suslov said that the main result of the meeting of NATO defense ministers was growing militarization of confrontation in Europe: "The United States has enlisted the support of its European allies on the issue of recognizing Russia as a military threat, and this military threat lies in the alleged violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) by Russia and in the fact that Russia launches cyber attacks against NATO member countries. The US is seeking to obtain support and has already partially received it, or they are in the process of receiving support from European NATO member countries in increasing the arms race in Europe in the area of the direct neighborhood, Russia-NATO contact ... Since 2014, the United States has relied on Russia's comprehensive containment, one of the most important elements of which is an arms race, military pressure on Russia."
The expert is convinced that Moscow should prepare for the further strengthening of the confrontation, including the further strengthening of the arms race. "Today, the only question is whether this confrontation will be guided or uncontrollable. This is the only choice we have today. Therefore, does it require a dialogue with NATO as an institution? In my opinion, it is certainly needed, but solely on the prevention of direct military confrontation."
Suslov believes that the United States will continue to be non-negotiable in the near future, which will last at least until the second half of the next decade: "In terms of the positive development of Russian-American relations, we should wait for the completion of a very difficult cycle of renewal of the American political elite, American political parties, the formation of a new foreign policy consensus, and an extremely difficult and painful adaptation of the U.S. to the world, which they categorically do not want to accept and recognize. This is a world in which the United States is no longer the unconditional center.
As long as this internal and external adaptation continues in the United States, and it is unlikely to end at least until the second half of the next decade, the U.S. will continue its confrontational policy towards Russia. Until their internal adaptation and internal transit is completed, an unprecedented internal political struggle will continue in the United States, which will make them incompetent and non-negotiable in international relations, primarily in relations with Russia, since Russia will continue to be an instrument of the American internal political struggle even after Trump. In this regard, it is necessary to continue a crisis management dialogue with the United States, as well as a dialogue on preventing direct military confrontation, uncontrolled escalation and the prevention of a third world war with nuclear escalation."