War in Iran will destabilize the whole region
According to the Head of the Caspian Cooperation Institute, Sergei Mikheev, a full-scale military operation in Iran would have serious negative consequences for all the countries of the region.
«A war in Iran can encourage the escalation of all internal conflicts of the region. This instability will hamper all major economic projects conducted or planned in the region. Plus there will be a serious problem of refugees from Iran. A war in Iran will be a true regional catastrophe. Many countries bordering on Iran may get directly involved in the conflict. It is obvious that the US won’t conduct such an operation on its own, as the experience of the past years has taught them that the legitimacy of any operation depends on the number of its participants. Apart form its NATO allies, the US will try to get regional powers involved. The media has already reported rumors of possible US army bases in Georgia. However, the involvement of any regional country in this operation would only result in negative consequences for these countries in the long run. The whole security system of the region that delivers oil to half the world will be destroyed.
“Another risk is obvious: the war could be carried out in dangerous proximity to Russia’s borders. As for the restraining factor, there are only two – the situation in Syria and the upcoming presidential elections in the US. The Obama administration can’t risk any action in Iran until the situation in Syria is resolved and it can’t risk a full-blown military operation in Iran on the eve of the polls.
“All gas projects connected to the Caspian region will be buried if war with Iran breaks out. Moreover, it is obvious that the US will make Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan accept its fleet in the Caspian Sea – and that is what the US wanted all along. Any war in the region would also encourage separatism and terrorism on the North Caucasus.
“The US is conducting experiments all over the world; Americans bribe local elites so that they will support them. The US resolves its own problems and it doesn’t care that it creates a lot of new problems for other states, especially for those located in the region. The US tactics of dividing enemy states according to ethnic principles is also well-known. All in all, nothing good will come to the region out of this war, only the US and Saudi Arabia will resolve their problems. And of course, Russia’s reaction to such an operation will be ultimately negative, but we won’t be able to do much to stop it.
“Right now the US isn’t ready for a full-scale operation, but it can still bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities; it can maintain escalation until the Iranian government is weakened enough to overthrow it. And in any case such strikes would be only the beginning of US’ penetration into the region of the Caucasus and Central Asia”