A Bosnian scenario for Ukraine

A Bosnian scenario for Ukraine

By Vestnik Kavkaza

Last week the Ukrainian parliament voted for the dismissal of Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovich and set a date for early presidential elections on May 25th. Today the Deputy Secretary of State of the USA, Williams Burns, arrives in Kiev to meet the speaker of the Rada, Alexander Turchinov, the leader of Batkivshchina Party, Arseny Yatsenyuk, and other MPs. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance and the National Economic Council of the USA will arrive together with Mr. Burns, they will work with the EU and the IMF on supporting the new Ukrainian authorities.

At the same time, the Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs is surprised that “several European politicians quickly supported the declaration of the early presidential elections in Ukraine in May, even though the Agreement on settlement of the situation in Ukraine, which was signed on February 21st, requires that elections should take place only after providing a constitutional reform. Obviously, for the reform to be successful, all political forces of Ukraine and all regions of the country should take part in it; and its results should be taken to an all-national referendum. We believe that concerns of MPs from eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, the Crimea, and Sevastopol, which were voiced in Kharkov on February 22nd, should be taken into account.”

Experts are concerned about the situation as well. The observer of Voice of Russia, political scientist Dmitry Babich, thinks that developments in Ukraine may develop according to the Bosnian scenario: “If we look at names, the same people acted and are acting in Ukraine and Bosnia. For example, the foreign minister of Sweden, Karl Bildt, was the High Representative in Bosnia for many years. At the moment, he is one of the most active players in Ukraine. He was first to say that Yanukovich’s hands were covered in blood, i.e. he gave a sign that he could be dismissed.”

Analyzing the results of the EU governance in Bosnia, Babich noted: “The average wage in Bosnia is 420 euros today. 44% of the population is unemployed. The philosophy is the same as in Ukraine – let the good ideas win. According to them, there are ineffective countries – remains of the former Soviet Union, where the post-Soviet elite should be replaced. Certain undemocratic things could be done in favor of this. A takeover could be supported.”

Babich says that the result of the actions is “very bad”: “The riots in Bosnia were true food riots. It appeared that instruments used by the EU to revive Bosnia – privatization, other traditional things – gave a converse effect. The philosophy doesn’t work. Brussels responds: “It’s alright! We should press more to force it in. We won’t give you money and won’t yield a word.” It was in Ukraine. Yanukovich didn’t reject the association agreement, he simply asked to postpone it, change the text and give some money. He received three “nos” from the EU: “We won’t give you money, we will give you our laws, the zone of prosperity and stability; we will talk to you only and there should be no trilateral talks; and we won’t change a word in the agreement.” The same went for Bosnia: “Probably we will change your Constitution in a way we would like, but in other aspects live, privatize, implement reforms which we tell you to implement.” The scenario of developments in Bosnia and Ukraine is one and the same.”