Andrey Baklanov: "Referendum changes situation in favor of Erdogan"

Yesterday, the constitutional referendum on a number of changes to the constitution was held in Turkey, which will turn the republic from a parliamentary to a presidential one. The preliminary result of the vote showed that supporters of the presidential system won with a minimum margin: 24.3 million people supported the amendments, 23.2 million people voted against them. The deputy head of the Council of the Russian Diplomats Association, Andrey Baklanov, told Vestnik Kavkaza what President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's victory over the Kemalists could mean.

- In your opinion, how will the referendum and its results affect the future of Turkey?

- First of all, the referendum practically brought the division of the population on the issue of the constitutional structure of Turkey and the government of the country to an official level. Accordingly, the split over the issue of what ideology should be put in the basis of further state building was finally formed. In Kemalist Turkey it was believed that Islam is the religion of the country's citizens, that is, every believer's personal business, which should not be a basis for ideological, especially state development. Now the vector is seriously changing, and they have yet to understand how hard the ruling party will behave in the future, whether it adopt the slogans, which, for example, the 'Muslim Brotherhood' had.

"As a result, the referendum indicates much more alarming level of those issues that have been brewing in the society in recent years. Of course, in general, it decides, first and foremost, the task posed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: adapt the system of state bodies and assert himself as the head of state in all the manifestations. On the other hand, the results of the referendum are not directly related to Turkey's real socio-economic or regional problems. Now it all depends on how realistic the country's policy will be under the new arrangement of state bodies.

- How will such a minimal victory strengthen Erdogan's power?

- Erdogan's power would have strengthened anyway, no matter how small the margin between those supporting and those who are against. Now the president will be able to rely confidently on the will of the voters. Despite the only one million-vote advantage, his position became more durable, which will allow him to qualitatively change the power structures by 2019, when the next presidential election will be held. He will occupy a key, much higher position in the government than now, so that the referendum changed the situation in his favor.

- Does it mean that it is worthwhile predicting Erdogan's victory in the presidential elections in 2019, after which the official change of state system will take place?

- If the situation does not undergo any fundamental changes, then, given the fact that Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a very experienced statesman and as a whole has held the leading position in one or another quality for a long time, I think that his chances of becoming the first president of Turkey with new powers are high.

- Will Russian-Turkish relations change after the referendum?

- In my opinion, this event has nothing to do with relations with Russia. We proceed from the fact that Erdogan's recent statements testified to his desire to conduct mutually beneficial trade, economic and other relations with us on a pragmatic basis. Of course, there are still discrepancies between us, a number of question marks have not been resolved yet, but if Erdogan is ready to pursue the course to improve relations with Russia, we, on our part, are also ready to pursue this course with regard to his state.

- What kind of reaction can be expected from the West now and in the future, taking into account, in particular, Erdogan's intention to bring the issue of the death penalty to a new referendum?

- I think the western position will be restrained. And the main thing here is not that Erdogan intends to put key issues, about which public opinion in the West is very anxious, for discussion, but the fact that Ankara has not fully defined its commitments to NATO and the nature of its interaction with the EU countries. The lines of Erdogan's future policy in these areas are not completely clear for the West, therefore, there will be a period of mutual study of the plans and their implementation.

5380 views

Read on the subject


More Russian news

Best to assume Russia sanctions last forever

Best to assume Russia sanctions last forever

Assuming they stay forever, Wall Street is not worried

At least 137 people injured in Moscow storm

At least 137 people injured in Moscow storm

At least 137 people have been injured in a severe thunderstorm hitting Moscow on Monday afternoon, a source from Moscow’s emergency services said, TASS reports. "As of the moment, 137 injured people have sought medical …

Makhachkala celebrates Azerbaijan#039s Republic Day

Makhachkala celebrates Azerbaijan's Republic Day

Event dedicated to the Republic Day of Azerbaijan was held in Makhachkala's House of Friendship. The event was organized by the House of Friendship and local national-cultural autonomy of Azerbaijanis of Makhachkala. …

Court of Arbitration for Sport rules against appeal of six Russian cross country skiers

Court of Arbitration for Sport rules against appeal of six Russian cross country skiers

The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) ruled on Monday to uphold the provisional suspensions of six Russian cross country skiers rejecting their appeal, the court said in its statement, TASS reports. "The Court of Arbitration for …

Moscow mayor says Monday#039s hurricane in Moscow #039unprecedented#039

Moscow mayor says Monday's hurricane in Moscow 'unprecedented'

The hurricane that struck Moscow City on Monday afternoon was unprecedented, Moscow City mayor Sergei Sobyanin said, TASS reports. "I can't remember within my recollection any other such calamity with the …

Russia ready to restore flights to Egypt if security measures met

Russia ready to restore flights to Egypt if security measures met

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated on Monday that the resumption of direct flights between Russia and Egypt would be possible only when Cairo fully implements security agreements reached after a 2015 tragedy …

Death toll following Moscow thunderstorms rises to 11

Death toll following Moscow thunderstorms rises to 11

The death toll after Monday afternoon’s violent thunderstorms that hammered Moscow has left at least 11 people dead and 50 injured, a spokesman for the capital’s health department said, TASS reports. He said ten hospitals …

 Russia#039s Envoy: NATO strengthening in Europe is Cold War relic

Russia's Envoy: NATO strengthening in Europe is Cold War relic

NATO's strengthening in Europe has provoked a qualitative turn for the worse, the situation looks very dangerous, Russia's Permanent Representative to the alliance Alexander Grushko said during a video conference at …

 Kremlin: Europe and US should tackle their relations by themselves

Kremlin: Europe and US should tackle their relations by themselves

The European Union and the United States should sort out bilateral relations on their own, the matter does not bother Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, commenting on German Chancellor Angela …

Novak: no subsidy requests from Russian oil companies after extended OPEC deal

Novak: no subsidy requests from Russian oil companies after extended OPEC deal

Russian oil companies have not requested subsidies in connection with the extended Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) agreement to cut production, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. …

more Russian news