Lana Ravandi-Fadai: "Presidential elections in Iran unpredictable"

Soon - on May 19 - the Islamic Republic of Iran will hold its presidential election. The senior research fellow of the Department of Near and Middle East at the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Lana Ravandi-Fadai, told Vestnik Kavkaza about what can be expected from the election campaign and the voting.

 - In your opinion, how predictable are these presidential elections in Iran?

- It is important to remember that no matter how many analysts tried to predict the results of the elections in Iran, they always failed. The presidential elections in Iran are always unpredictable, everything will be decided literally on the last day, depending on who will be approved by the Supervisory Board, because now there are about a thousand registered as potential presidential candidates. Let me remind you that traditionally, a huge number of people in Iran are registered as participants in the elections, it can be the most common person - but it's crucial to be approved by the Supervisory Board.

It is also worth noting that if in large cities, like Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, a significant number of voters form their opinion on candidates themselves, in small settlements people will vote the way they will be told by their imam on Friday. This factor will also affect the voting results.

- In that case, in your estimation, how strong are the positions of President Hassan Rouhani now?

"Since in the United States the Trump administration came to power with the pro-Israel and, as a consequence, anti-Iranian policy, right up to the statements that Iran is the "terrorist state number one", and Hassan Rouhani is a reformer, now he is considered a weak candidate. Tehran is required to find a candidate who will oppose Trump, that is, an ultraconservative. In this regard, Mohsen Rezaee is among the strongest candidates, although he has not said yet that he will run. Despite a small number of votes in previous elections, he has a very good economic program, he is well-known, has leadership experience in high positions, he is supported by IRGC and by the military in general , therefore, he is a fairly weighty figure.

At the same time, I still expect that Rouhani will win, although Iranian citizens are dissatisfied with him. People judge by what happens inside the country, not on its foreign policy successes, so they see that Hassan Rouhani's economic promises made during the election campaign are not coming true, and they do not like what is happening in Iran now. And yet we should expect his re-election, since, by tradition, if a person has become president, he then passes for a second term. Although the tense situation due to Donald Trump's coming to power in the US should not be forgotten.

- How will the western and northwestern regions of Iran vote in the elections?

- They will be guided by the candidates' programs. During the 2013 election campaign Hasan Rukhani provided himself with voices of those regions where ethnic minorities live, due to a pronounced national policy in his program - in particular, he promised to open schools and develop education in the localities in native languages. This greatly helped him in the elections. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also visited these areas before the elections and promised many things - his campaigns were quite populist. That is, the behavior of the west and north-west of Iran will depend on promises of those who will eventually be allowed to participate in the pre-election race.

- In your opinion, is the new Washington really sharply aggressive towards Iran?

"I really hope that Trump is actually bluffing. It is enough to recall his book 'The Art of the Deal' - it describes the tactic of bluffing in detail as a way to get one's way. If this turns out that it was not a bluff, it will lead to very unpleasant consequences, while now there is a certain warming of relations with Europe, especially with Italy, which is actively entering the Iranian market and supporting the Iranian economy.

5865 views

Read on the subject


More Iran News

President Ilham Aliyev phones Hassan Rouhani

President Ilham Aliyev phones Hassan Rouhani

On May 29, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev made a phone call to President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Hassan Rouhani, Trend reports. The head of state congratulated Hassan …

Iran to launch its first sensor-operational satellite in 2018

Iran to launch its first sensor-operational satellite in 2018

Iran will launch its first sensor-operational satellite in 2018, a top official of Iran Space Research Center Hassan Haddadpour said. Iran acquired the know-how of designing and constructing the satellites inside …

US orders imagery from Iran and North Korea

US orders imagery from Iran and North Korea

The geospatial intelligence startup Planet Labs Inc has been contracted to supply US National Geospatial Intelligence Agency with imagery from Syria and Iraq, Iran and North Korea. The Agency also plans to request imagery from …

Two Iranian border guards killed in northwestern Iran during clashes with Kurds

Two Iranian border guards killed in northwestern Iran during clashes with Kurds

Two Iranian border guards were killed and five more injured as a result of an armed clash with a Kurdish militant group Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) at Iran's northwestern border with Iraq's autonomous region of Kurdistan, Sputnik …

Will anti-Iranian coalition be created?

Will anti-Iranian coalition be created?

Hardliners want to oppose Rouhani more resolutely

Iranian film A Man of Integrity wins #039Certain Regard#039 competition at Cannes

Iranian film "A Man of Integrity" wins 'Certain Regard' competition at Cannes

A movie by an Iranian who was previously sentenced to jail for his work in Iran won the top prize in the " …

Iran, Russia presidents discuss JCPOA implementation, Middle East developments

Iran, Russia presidents discuss JCPOA implementation, Middle East developments

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday held a phone conversation with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. During the call, Putin once again offered congratulations to Rouhani on his landslide reelection victory, Press TV …

Missiles of the Middle East

Missiles of the Middle East

Stability in the Middle East is not only threatened by missiles, but also short-range rockets launched by non-state actors

Will Rouhani#039s opposition create shadow government in Iran

Will Rouhani's opposition create shadow government in Iran

Hardliners are now seeking to oppose Rouhani more forcefully

Putin, Rouhani stress importance of enhancing efforts to resolve Syrian conflict

Putin, Rouhani stress importance of enhancing efforts to resolve Syrian conflict

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani discussed by the phone the situation in Syria and stressed the importance of enhancing joint efforts to resolve the …

more Iran News