Dollar returns in July 2015
There was a sharp decline in the dollar exchange rates today on the Moscow stock exchange. Dollar fell below 56,55 rubles for the first time since mid-July 2015, reaching 56.36 rubles. The euro exchange rate declined by 0.29 rubles to 60.63 rubles.
The ruble continues to strengthen against the backdrop of the increase in world oil prices: the cost of the February futures of Brent crude oil on London's ICE trading increased by 0.19% to $52.64 per barrel.
Oil world prices are rising against the background of statistics. The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude inventories rose by 900,000 barrels to a weekly record 534 million barrels for the week ended March 24. But that rise was less than half the 1.9 million-barrel climb posted by the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday.
The chief economist at PF Capital, Yevgeny Nadorshin, speaking to Vestnik Kavkaza, said that for a number of exporters, the continued growth of the ruble is indeed a noticeable problem and a significant inconvenience. "Few expected the ruble to return to such a level. That is why most business plans and strategies contains numbers, which are more comfortable for the sphere of material production. On the contrary, for the service industry it's even a plus. The reason is that consumers will feel more comfortable and we could expect a substantial increase in their spending in the near future," the expert said.
At the same time, the stable ruble will bring the greatest benefit to producers oriented to domestic consumption. "This is precisely the sphere that has been declining so far, and under the new conditions we can count for it to grow," the chief economist at PF Capital pointed out.
A researcher at the Center for Study of Structural Studies of the Institute of Applied Economic Researches of RANEPA, Mikhail Khromov, drew attention to the double impact of the strengthening of the ruble on the Russian economy. "One cannot say that the rate of 70 rubles per dollar is definitely better than the rate of 50 rubles per dollar under the current circumstances. If ruble strengthens, exporters and the budget lose, and those who have a business built on a large number of imported components and imported raw materials win. So I would not say that the strengthening of the ruble threatens with some terrible consequences for the Russian economy," he said.
Mikhail Khromov drew attention to the fact that everyone benefits from a stable ruble. "Excessive volatility is bad for everyone. If importers believe that the exchange rate can rise, they can consider it in the price of the final product - then after the strengthening of the ruble they will receive additional profit, and consumers will buy their goods for same prices," the economist explained, adding that ultimately a consumer who prefers imported goods wins from strengthening ruble, as they become cheaper.