Is Iran preparing for JCPOA haggle?
The meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission at the level of political directors was held in Vienna yesterday. Following the meeting, the sides agreed to organize a higher-level meeting of foreign ministers soon.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi, commenting on the meeting's results, said that it did not give Tehran any guarantees of its interests.
Senior research fellow of the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Sazhin, speaking to Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that the Vienna meeting was necessary for the JCPOA parties, but it was not worth expecting any fundamental changes in the Iranian issue. According to him, the meeting was important as its participants could exchange views on the current situation.
"Despite the fact that INSTEX has started operating, now it deals only with the with humanitarian goods - medicines, medical equipment, food, etc. The issue of oil supplies is much more complicated, but it's the most important thing for Iran now. Therefore, it seems to me that the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister's statement on this issue is one of the options to encourage Europeans to work more actively in the framework of INSTEX, so that this system can ensure the export of Iranian oil," Sazhin noted.
According to the expert, it's not happening now, so Tehran will continue to gradually refuse to comply with the JCPOA. The expert stressed that the Iranian authorities have not taken any radical steps yet, since they understand the possible consequences. "But the general situation is very alarming, and now much will depend on the Europeans. If they can provide at least partial export of Iranian oil, it will be a positive thing. Now Iran officially exports about 300 thousand barrels of oil per day, and 14 months ago it was 2.5 million," the expert added.
"Another very important issue is the relations between the U.S. and Iran. If these relations can be somehow relaxed, then there is hope that the JCPOA will continue to exist in some form," Vladimir Sazhin concluded.