Will the ruble become weakest link in the market?
Morgan Stanley analysts characterized the ruble as the "weakest link" in the fixed-income instruments markets. They predict that after a small recovery of the ruble situation will change, and the dollar will cost 66 rubles.
The advisor on macroeconomics to the CEO of the 'Opening-Broker' brokerage house, economist Sergey Hestanov, said in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza that current situation is rather contradictory, explaining that while the ruble is fairly weak, oil prices are quite high.
"That's why technically, the reasoning of representatives of Morgan Stanley is pretty rational. But it's rather difficult to predict specific numbers, since it's obvious that dollar and ruble are easily influenced by political factor, in particular sanctions," he explained.
"Accordingly, I think that that it's a little too early to make such forecasts, it's necessary to wait at least until sanctions that were imposed earlier come into force, which will happen only on June 10," he added.
The professor at the department of the stock market and investments at the Higher School of Economics, Alexander Abramov, was surprised that Morgan Stanley gave this forecast based on technical analysis, although he admitted that technical signals can be trusted.
"Of course, there are risks that can hurt the ruble. If sanctions will affect even more companies and sectors of the economy, there will be some uncertainty, and the ruble may drop," he said.
"But right now, with fairly high oil prices and more or less balanced budget, I think that risks are limited. The ruble will likely stay at the level of 61-62 rubles for 1 dollar, and in the future it may even get stronger," he noted.