Armenian expert named Yerevan's biggest mistake
Armenia's defeat in the second Karabakh war was the result of its seizure of seven regions of Azerbaijan as a "security zone", writes an independent expert ArmInfo Eduard Naghdalyan. In 1994, the Armenian authorities recognized that these seven regions were destined for future bargaining over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, but did not understand that dragging out bargaining and delaying the return of territories turned Armenia into an occupying country that encroached on the territorial integrity of a neighboring state. The world would not agree with this unequivocally and under no circumstances.
As a result, according to the expert, the worst way of all possible was chosen - the notorious option of maintaining the status quo, when the authorities refused to finally resolve the issue and sign a peace treaty, preserving the regime of occupation of Azerbaijani territories. “It was a grandiose, tragic foreign policy mistake of Armenia, - writes Naghdalyan. - We acted as if we were a regional military superpower controlling the region, although in fact we were a degrading economic midget, located in a geographic blockade. We did not understand that we did not immediately Having decided the issue of converting the military victory into a peace treaty with Azerbaijan in 1994, we automatically turned on the countdown on the timer of the future explosion. So, it was then that we lost the current war. After all, our inadequacy is our everything. "
In the Armenian interpretation, the temporarily occupied territories of Azerbaijan very soon became "liberated" (I wonder from whom?). "This cannot be interpreted otherwise than as defiant arrogance and insult to our neighbor, with whom we have to live forever. The world perceived this catastrophic irresponsibility with bewilderment, but we continued to play absolutely adventurous with fire ... We were told about the occupied territories, and we were talking about self-determination, not paying attention even to the fact that our de facto status of an occupying country sharply depreciated our own rhetoric on the issue of the right of nations to self-determination, "the expert writes.
The timer went off on September 27, 2020. The defeat was inevitable. Naghdalyan also names those responsible for what happened: “Those are our leaders who at one time did not agree with Heydar Aliyev on a peace treaty due to their provincial thoughtlessness are to blame. Those village princelings who then followed the path of a catastrophic scenario of maintaining the status quo of the occupied territories are to blame. who have arrogantly allowed themselves a cynical imitation of the negotiation process during all these 25 years. All the Armenian political parties, the expert community and the media of Armenia are to blame, which for 25 years poisoned the people with the pseudo-patriotic slogan “not an inch of land to the enemy.” Just think about the essence of this slogan "Not an inch of Azerbaijani land to Azerbaijan? This is absolute insanity."
The expert also asks whether the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan could have prevented the war, and answers: “In theory, immediately after coming to power, Pashinyan was obliged to immediately announce a change in foreign policy. criminal status quo politics and the transition to meaningful, non-imitation negotiations on a real settlement of the conflict in a spirit of good neighborliness. We could immediately declare our readiness to return all seven occupied areas in exchange for something. We could simply return these areas as a gesture of goodwill subject to certain conditions. There were a lot of options. The main thing here is the desire to really reach an agreement, which Armenia has not yet had. "
Naghdalyan admits that this is only a theory, but in practice the prime minister could not take such steps: “Pashinyan received power from the people, totally poisoned by the poison of the slogan“ not an inch of land to the enemy. ”Mass accusations of betrayal, the sale of land and anything else - the most the minimum that he would immediately receive in response. As a result, Pashinyan could not get out of this political trap, which he inherited as a difficult legacy. Therefore, we were historically doomed to inevitable military defeat. This is the price for catastrophic mistakes in foreign policy. "
As for the role of Russia, the expert calls it exceptional: "No country in the world could have stopped this war - Azerbaijan de-occupied its lands, this was recognized by the entire international community, including Russia itself. Russia could not stop the war, but it could stop And as soon as that moment came, Russia made this decision with lightning speed and saved thousands of lives. This was its unique mission, for which we should be extremely grateful to Russia. " Naghdalyan predicts that a completely new economic reality will soon emerge on the territory of the South Caucasus, and it is Armenia that will receive the maximum benefits from this reality, where absolutely new windows of opportunity will be created.