Brexit: Is Cameron British Gorbachev?
Europe is in a deep shock due to the results of the referendum in the UK, and Prime Minister Cameron, who has taken a decision to resign, is destined to get into the country's history as the worst prime minister, who has top even the infamous Neville Chamberlain. ‘’The idea of the referendum was initially wrong. Cameron does not just withdraw the UK from the EU. He will be remembered as the Prime Minister who broke the United Kingdom. Because now again a referendum on the Scottish independence will be held’’, a conservative Ruprecht Polenz, the former head of the foreign policy committee of the Bundestag could not hide his indignation. ‘’Despite the results of the referendum in the UK, the next day still came," President of the Bundestag Norbert Lammert tried to reassure the German politicians, . There is no doubt that Brexit is a blow to Europe, from which it won’t recover soon. It is also another painful blow to the foreign policy of Angela Merkel, who is already in a difficult situation.
Meanwhile, the economists calculate probable losses and risks arising after Brexit. Clemens Fyust, the German economist and president of the credible research center Ifo, noted in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: ‘’The decision of the British is a defeat of a mind. The politicians now must do everything possible to limit the economic damage. " According to the experts, to do so it is necessary to provide the possibility that the UK remains deeply integrated into the EU internal market. "It is important to conclude the negotiations on this issue as soon as possible, so that the phase of the uncertainty about the future of the economic relations is as short as possible.’’ The Ifo institute predicts the UK economy’s rollback in connection with the withdrawal from the EU to 2.2 per cent.
A similar opinion is shared by other analysts. "The decision of the British citizens will have potentially fatal consequences, despite the fact that this decision was not a surprise. The EU member-states failed to instill European identity in its citizens during all these years. The result we see now in the UK and in the discussions that are conducted in the other European countries ", Dennis Snouder, the director of the Institute of World Economy (Institut für Weltwirtschaft) said. He predicts a long and dangerous stage of uncertainty in the economic relationship between the UK and the EU. " The Swiss or Norwegian model of the Associative agreement is an utopia for the UK. In this case, the British, despite the loss of its influence in the EU, still would have to follow all the rules of the union. " It is also unlikely that the EU will make any significant economic discounts for the UK after its withdrawal - now it is important for the Europeans to show their attitude to such a precedent to "scare" the other members of the consequences of the exit ", the economist concludes.
Mihall Hyuter, the director of the Institute of the German Economy in Cologne, thinks that there are no winners in these circumstances. "The UK is losing its weight on the world stage, as well as an access to the largest domestic market in the world. On the other hand, the EU must take into account the loss of their most important financial center and the gateway to the British Commonwealth of Nations and the United States ", Hyuter believes.
Marseille Fratsher, the head of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), said the decision of the British is ‘’a disaster for all the Europeans." He fears the significant financial costs for all of Europe. United Kingdom, in his opinion, bears a risk of sliding into recession. As for the consequences for the Federal Republic of Germany, by the mere reduction of the German exports to the UK, Germany's GDP will shrink by 0.5 per cent. These trends are likely to worsen due to the processes in the financial markets and the uncertainty about future the relations with the British. But the highest risks Brexit bears for a crisis of the countries such as Italy, the position of which can now get even worse.
Thomas Straubhaar of the Hamburg University is concerned about the possible "parade of exits’’ of the European countries of the union. "The risk of the further exits from the EU will hang like a sword of Damocles over Europe, a constant fear of a new reason to leave the EU will be present in all decisions.’’ According to Straubhaar, the national-conservative parties in the European countries will only strengthen in the future and include the issue of the withdrawal from the European Union to the political agenda.