Karabakh war: winners and losers
The second Karabakh war ended on Nov. 10, 2020, when the Armenian government admitted defeat and signed a cease-fire agreement with Azerbaijan. The nearly 30-year-old conflict finally has come to an end. Daily Sabah reports in its article Pro-Armenian West is net loser of 2nd Karabakh war that in the immediate aftermath of the agreement, many discussions have begun on whether the sides will abide by the deal or not. Some observers have discussed the gains and losses of the conflicting sides.
Azerbaijan is the clear winner. Turkey has consolidated its alliance and partnership with Azerbaijan. Russia is another winner of the war. First of all, Moscow has won new ground in the Caucasus region. Russia has shown that it will not allow any ex-Soviet state to be hijacked by the West. After signing the cease-fire agreement, a new wave of political instability and large-scale demonstrations and riots started in Armenia. It seems that the Armenian domestic crisis will deepen in the coming months and years.
All pro-Armenian states can be counted among the losers of the war as well. Among them, the Western countries come first. Almost all Western countries have declared sympathy and support for Armenia. Especially, the United States and France, the most pro-Armenian countries in the West, did little to intervene in the conflict. France sent some assistance to Armenia, but it could not change the course of the conflict. The Russian reclaim in a wide region has remained unanswered by the West, which lost its unity and has no uniform reactions to global developments. In other words, the West continues to lose ground vis-a-vis Russia within global politics.
Considering the winners and losers of the Karabakh war, there are two main conclusions that can be derived from it. First, there is now a new geopolitical context in the Caucasus. This new reality will surely influence the future of regional politics, which will have implications for the neighboring regions as well. Second, the Karabakh war has shown one more time that power politics dominate world politics. That is, a state can only get its rights through power. Diplomatic efforts, such as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group have failed to solve the Karabakh problem in the last 30 years.