Kocharyan failed at the elections, but he has a new plan
On June 20, early parliamentary elections were held in Armenia, which ended in a confident victory for Nikol Pashinyan's party - his "Civil Contract" received 72 mandates. The main opponent is acting Prime Minister - the bloc of ex-President Robert Kocharian took the second place, having managed to get the nationalists from "Dashnaktsutyun" into parliament and secured 27 mandates. Unexpectedly for everyone, members of the "I Have Honor" bloc of the third president of the republic, Serzh Sargsyan and former head of the National Security Service, Artur Vanetsyan, managed to get into parliament, having received a modest six mandates.
The nationalists failed to defeat Pashinyan. For the second time in the modern history of Armenia, people voted against the revanchist ideas of Kocharian and his supporters. Even the defeat of the Armenian army in the Second Karabakh War under the Pashinyan government did not return Kocharian's popularity, although he did not hesitate to demonize any alternatives to the separatists.
The bloc of parties "Rodina" and "Republican Party of Armenia" (RPA) failed to gain the necessary 7% to pass the electoral barrier.
"I have the honor" owes its result to Artur Vanetsyan, who, probably, was able to call his electoral base for the elections.
5.32% of the votes did not allow Gagik Tsarukyan's "Prosperous Armenia" to retain his presence in the National Assembly.
Now the parliament has lost the system of opposition, through which Pashinyan's opponents put a spoke in the wheels of the "Civil Agreement". Now, instead of a bleak political meeting attended by the ruling party and several of its systemic opponents, Armenia received a parliament headed by a "revolutionary" government and its opponents, who can hardly be considered an opposition force willing to work for the good of the republic. If earlier it was enough for Kocharyan and his associates to use the behind-the-scenes services of the systemic opposition in order to ruin Pashinyan's initiatives, now the ex-president will have to do everything with his own hands.
Kocharian lost the elections - just getting into parliament is not enough for him, since the criminal prosecution against the second president has not been completed, and after the elections it may even be restarted.
A coalition of separatist forces cannot oppose Pashinyan in parliament. First, the Civil Contract party won an absolute majority of the seats in the National Assembly. Secondly, let's see with what forces the Karabakh separatists managed to get into parliament. The pocket party of the former governor of Syunik Vahe Hakobyan cannot boast of a reliable composition, and therefore will not become a support for Kocharyan. The party of the former head of the National Security Service, Artur Vanetsyan, is young and is likely to be lost between the interests of Sargsyan and Kocharyan. There remain the Dashnaks, whose political experience was tested outside the parliament, but not within its walls. Dashnaktsutyun members are accustomed to participating in high-profile political campaigns, supporting this or that influential person, and it is scary to imagine what legislative initiatives the members of the “revolutionary federation”, whose rhetoric is almost always pumped by calls to arms, can come up with.
The presence of the leaders of the Karabakh clan within the walls of parliament is unlikely. Neither Sargsyan nor Kocharian will take part in parliamentary sessions and criticize the prime minister's policy from the rostrum of the National Assembly.
Taking into account the fact that Kocharian and his team went to the elections as to war, it is likely that the nationalist front of the former political elite will prefer a political demarche - they will continue to refuse to recognize the election results. In this case, the Armenian parliament will not be able to meet, and Pashinyan will not be able to be re-elected. The fact that Armenia may plunge into a deep political crisis of anarchy seems to be something secondary for Kocharian. The ex-president of Armenia under investigation went to fight with Pashinyan, so now Kocharian will try to prevent Pashinyan from being elected prime minister by disrupting the process of forming the parliament.