New U.S.-Iran nuclear deal to be matter of time
The Iranian nuclear problem still determines relations between the West and Tehran and influences geopolitics in the Middle East. Washington’s uncompromised policy makes us think the U.S. administration doesn’t intend to find common grounds with the Iranian government. It is pulling out of deals signed by previous American governments with great effort. However, the U.S. is ready to make a new nuclear deal.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in 2015 didn’t close down all nuclear infrastructure of Iran, including nuclear weapon production. So the current crisis of the American-Iranian relations is another turn of a long-standing struggle. The crucial position of Donald Trump is signing new agreements and ignoring previous ones. The U.S. had been ignoring the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which was signed in 1987, for many years and finally Trump pulled out of it. The everlasting isolation of North Korea is now over and nothing has stopped the head of the White House from signing a historical agreement with Kim Il Sung’s grandson. In the end, it came to Iran and its nuclear program. Trump promised to review the nuclear deal as far back as his election campaign. The deal with Iran was one of the biggest foreign political achievements of President Barack Obama as the U.S. actively worked on the agreement’s development. The review of Washington’s policy on not only Iran, but also China, Russia, as well as NATO members and the EU meets the U.S. economic interests. Offence is the best defence.
Obviously, sanctional policy against Iran can’t change Tehran’s political tack. Geopolitics of the Middle East suggests absence of vacuum – if someone is weakening, another one is strengthening. Iran’s influence has grown significantly in recent 5 years. Tehran is viewed as a participant of the Syrian peace settlement. Despite sanctions, Iran won’t give up actively participating in all processes in the Middle East. Moreover, the current sanctions can’t isolate Iranian economy. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed that the Turkish side didn’t support Washington’s position and believed that American anti-Iranian sanctions upset the global balance. The U.S. granted eight countries, including India, Japan, and South Korea, oil sanctions waivers. Once again, it proves that imposed restrictions should make the Iranian government to sign a new deal. They can’t do more.
New JCPOA will be similar to the previous one. Iran will promise to restrict a number of nuclear centrifuges and to close down highly-enriched uranium and weapon-grade plutonium production. Probably, there will be more inspecting organizations which can visit nuclear facilities along with the IAEA. Nuclear reactors in Arak, Ahvaz, and Bushehr will go on working. A special attention will be paid to the Fordo plant which is thought to be the leading technological center of the Iranian nuclear industry.
Tehran is likely to support an initiative of a new deal. It will try to keep the current nuclear potential. In this situation, the Iranian government will hunker down until then. At the moment, Tehran still adheres to JCPOA, even though the U.S. is imposing new sanctions on it. Iran pays much less importance to the U.S. pressing than to consequences of breaking obligations to the EU.