Oil edges down on slowing China economy
Oil prices edged up on Monday, reversing earlier losses, as investors shrugged off data that confirmed China’s economic growth is cooling and instead latched on to positive supply-side drivers for the market. Reuters reports in its article Oil rises as investors latch on to OPEC cuts, supply outlook that Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were up 12 cents at $62.83 a barrel by 3:23 p.m. EST (1727 GMT) versus Friday’s settlement price, while U.S. crude futures CLc1 were up 19 cents to $53.99 a barrel.
Global equities fell after data pointed to a slowdown in Chinese economic growth in 2018 to a 28-year low. The numbers fed concern that the outlook for global growth may be darkening, particularly given U.S.-China trade tensions.
“It remains quite likely that the trade spat with the U.S. has played a part in this latest slowdown,” CMC Markets chief market analyst Michael Hewson said. “But investors should also factor in that it simply isn’t possible for the Chinese economy to grow at the pace that it has over the last 10 years, in the next 10 years.”
Stock markets are still up so far this month, which has given oil investors more confidence to bet aggressively on a rise in crude prices.
Analysts said a more robust backdrop for financial markets and the prospect of slower crude production growth were the major drivers behind the rally in oil.
“The stock market performance is one of the reasons why oil keeps marching higher. There also seems to be a general belief that the agreed cut in OPEC+ production will be sufficient to balance the market,” PVM Oil Associates said in a note.
While there is concern that a slowing global economy could impact oil demand, production cuts implemented by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are likely to support crude oil prices, analysts said.
“You can’t justify oil prices at these levels. We’re looking basically at an average of almost $70 a barrel for Brent in 2019,” ING commodities strategist Warren Patterson said. “I am getting increasingly concerned about how tight the market will be going into 2020.”
A separate report from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed crude oil refinery throughput in 2018 climbed to a record 12.1 million barrels per day, up 6.8 percent from the previous year.
In the United States, energy companies cut the number of rigs drilling for oil by 21 last week, the biggest decline in three years, taking the count down to 852, the lowest since May 2018, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday.