Pashinyan-style purge. Will Armenian Prime Minister remain in office by the end of the year
"He must go"; "He is a coward and a national traitor," - these were the mottos of the unauthorized rallies that took place in Yerevan. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has completely lost credibility inside his country. The protesters followed Pashinyan's supporters, blazing through everything in their path - from the prime minister's office and residence to the regional branches of his party. Pashinyan himself, after the signing of the Karabakh agreement, does not appear in public, only broadcasts live on his Facebook page. There were rumors that the Armenian Prime Minister considered the building of the US Embassy in Armenia the most secure refuge for himself.
Thus, there is a paradox: the politician who came to power amid rallies is not going to show up or leave at the request of the street. Pashinyan demonstrates a philosophical approach to the internal political crisis, drawing attention to the imperfection of the Armenian society. Expressing regret that he did not conclude an agreement a year ago and did not de-occupy five regions around Karabakh, the Prime Minister said in one of his broadcasts that a year ago, no one in Armenia would have believed that this was the right way. It turns out that Armenia had to sacrifice more than 2,000 people, not to mention the catastrophic financial losses so that the Armenian political elite could overcome internal political pressure and sign an agreement necessary for peace.
Why does Armenia need the government that having all the military and strategic information, did not disclose to the people the need for an early settlement of the Karabakh crisis and not even try to overthrow the long-term lies and propaganda of the previous authorities? The policy of lies and fakes of the "Karabakh" presidents of Armenia is clear - it is an ideology of leaders for whom the Karabakh war provided all necessary conditions for a political ascent to the heights of the Armenian power. But what was street tribune Pashinyan thinking about when he adopted the policy of the Karabakh clan? One can assume that the Prime Minister who came to power initially did not intend to advance the negotiation process, concentrating all his forces on the gradual westernization of Armenia.
But for Pashinyan, the defeat in Karabakh does not mean political surrender in Armenia. Pashinyan is under siege, but he is in no hurry to leave, at least for now. Moreover, he responds to his opponents through a policy of personal suppression. The chairman of the second-largest parliamentary party ‘Prosperous Armenia’, Gagik Tsarukyan, was arrested, and the former head of the National Security Service of Armenia, Artur Vanetsyan, was accused of an assassination attempt - this is the elimination of the most prominent persons in the Armenian political arena. Tsarukyan is the potential financial source (wallet) of Pashinyan’s opposition and Vanetsyan - one of the first Armenian politicians to reveal the hypocritical nature of Armenia’s revolutionary government and personally Pashinyan’s. Logically, the next steps of Pashinyan will be repressions against Dashnaktsutyun, since the Dashnaks openly called on the public to overthrow Pashinyan and denounce the agreement on Karabakh.
The current situation does not give Pashinyan any chance of winning the next parliamentary elections. The positions of the ruling political team and the Prime Minister are extremely weakened, so it is possible that the elections will be held much earlier than in 2022. Now Pashinyan is eliminating those for whom angry voters could give their voices, thereby excluding any political alternative. It is difficult to say whether the renaissance of the "Karabakh clan" is possible in these circumstances, since it depends, first of all, on the Armenian people and their sympathies, which have yet to overcome the bifurcation point after the final realization of the second Karabakh war’s results. By the way, the return of separatist leaders to power in Armenia does not exclude the risk of a third war.
Time will show whether the West will support Pashinyan in this situation. As for the Russian Armenians, they consider Pashinyan an accidental figure in Armenian politics. Political scientist, MGIMO professor Andranik Migranyan believes that it is highly likely that over time, in order to maintain his power, Pashinyan will be forced to establish a tough dictatorship, since "all populists come to power in a democratic way, and as a result, they establish authoritarian regimes." Such an approach could provoke the forces wishing to undermine peace in the South Caucasus. Therefore, according to a number of famous Russian Armenians, in this situation, a rupture of the allied relations with Russia is sheer madness for Armenia.