Within the next two days the German parliament is to vote on the recognition of the "Armenian genocide" in the Ottoman Empire in 1915. There are no doubts that the resolution will be adopted, the draft was prepared by the factions of the ruling 'grand coalition' (CDU/CSU and SPD), as well as the green coalition.' The Germans will hardly go back on their word: the level of distaste for Erdogan and his ruling team surpasses all imaginable limits in Berlin. The diplomatic background between the two countries remains stably tense in recent years. Germany (and the West in general) found common ground with significant figures (Abdullah Gul, Ahmet Davutoglu) in the Turkish government, but they were removed from power. Yes, the matter is not in particular individuals, but the change in the structure and logic of the Turkish authorities, which led to a withdrawal from big politics and, as a consequence, the foreign tone of Turkey in recent years.
Germany depends on Ankara now due to the refugee crisis in the Middle East. This adds zest to the situation. If President Erdogan breaks the agreement on refugees because of the recognition of the 'genocide' by the Bundestag (the implementation has stopped because of some serious disagreements over the introduction of a visa-free regime between Turkey and the EU) it will negatively affect Chancellor Angela Merkel. "The migration pact" with Turkey is largely a saving project for Merkel that would reduce social and political tensions in Germany due to the uncontrolled influx of migrants. The discussion of the 'genocide' in the Parliament is obviously not the best present for the Chancellor. But it should be understood that, within the CDU/CSU, support for Merkel on the issue is far from perfect. We should not underestimate the financial interest of Turkey in the "migration pact" with the EU. Ankara may receive three billion euros from the Europeans at the initial stage. Turkey needs the money, as its tourist industry is currently experiencing a deep crisis due to constant terrorist threats and the severance of relations with Russia, the main supplier of tourists, after the incident with the Su-24.
German politicians and experts are interested in what the consequences may be for Turkish-German relations after the adoption of the resolutions. The deputy chairman of the SPD faction, Rolf Mutzenich, decided not to predict Ankara's reaction in case of adoption of the resolution. Above all, because of Erdogan's unpredictability. "But we should understand that, unlike France, there is no intention to punish those people who deny genocide,'' the deputy said in an interview for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. His colleague from the CDU, who holds a similar position in the parliamentary faction of the structure, Franz Josef Jung, said that dramatic consequences for German-Turkish relations should not be expected. In the end, the deputy points out that a year ago the chairman of the Bundestag and the German President described the events in 1915 as 'genocide', and then Turkey's reaction was not too tough. However, it should be remembered that the position of some politicians, even those who have such a high rank, has less weight than a parliamentary resolution. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier is anxious about the prospects for Turkish-German relations after the adoption of the resolution: "I hope that the resolution won't spoil our relations, and we will continue to work well." He commented on the debate at the Bundestag as follows: "I do not think that it is smart to subject this extremely sensitive process to danger [Armenian-Turkish reconciliation, editor's note]. And I am afraid that the problem won't be solved by a decision on how to apply the term of 'genocide','' Steinmeier said.
Meanwhile, there is information in the German media that the Bundestag deputies, particularly deputies of Turkish origin, are actively being "processed" by representatives of Turkey, who intend to prevent the adoption of the resolution. Turkish organizations also organized in the German capital a protest march against the intentions of the parliamentarians. However, the number of demonstrators didn't exceed one thousand. Taking into account the large number of Turks living in Berlin (200,000 people), it is a fairly low figure. However, the remarkable the fact is that the German parliament plans to adopt the resolution on the 'Armenian genocide' with about 3 million immigrants from Turkey. It means not only the failure of official diplomacy, but also serious problems of Turkish lobbyism and the Turkish diaspora in Germany.