Russia could become a moderator of the Yemeni settlement
Since March of this year Saudi Arabia, with the support of the armed forces of Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, has been conducting military operations in Yemen against the Shiite movement of Houthis ‘Ansar Allah’. The head of the SCO Department of the CIS Institute, an expert on military issues, Vladimir Yevseyev, commenting on the balance of power in Yemen, recognizes that it is in favor of the coalition, however, the expert calls for the military content to be examined.
"And who is fighting there? Let's see the army content, the armed forces of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates. Is there only the Saudis? There is a large number of people who have absolutely no links to Saudi Arabia. They are, in fact, mercenaries who are serving Saudi Arabia. After all, look at the coalition that has been formed by Saudi Arabia, for some reason Pakistan did not participate. And this is not accidental. This is not its conflict, what would it do there? And it does the conflict of Sudan. This conflict is related more to Saudi Arabia, which is not experiencing the best times due to low oil prices. And this may cause internal instability, " the expert believes.
‘’Well, if, say, they are so strong, a 150-thousand grouping, this is not a small group for combat operations. So what? They cannot liberate the territory, which is controlled by the Houthis? Then, they simply do not know how to fight. And if they do not know how to fight, then what kind of a military scenario can we talk about?" Evseev asks
He is convinced that it is impossible to rely either on the power scenario, or on any peace scenario: "They must accompany each other somehow. This takes place in Syria, it is impossible to conduct a peaceful dialogue without fighting. Because fighting creates a background against which it is possible to talk, to start the Vienna process. If we stop the war in Syria, the Vienna process will immediately rise. Apparently, Yemen must also have two tracks. There should be an attempt to start peace consultations. But the fighting still continues, it is quite understandable. Therefore, I think it is more realistic to talk about some issues, maybe local truces."
According to Yevseyev, the negotiations to resolve the conflict in Yemen are impossible without Tehran: "Iran, based on the official position, supports the Houthis ideologically, yes. But I suspect that, perhaps, it is not limited by this. And according to the information that we have, there are other forms of assistance provided beyond the ideological. But then it turns out that Iran cannot be withdrawn from the negotiations. And then it turns out that in Yemen we have a conflict not only between, say, the Houthis and the government, not only between, say, the coalition headed by Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. And there are other players who have a very serious impact on this process, and they should be present at the negotiating table" .
Evseev sees Moscow as a moderator of the talks: "I believe that Russia can be a moderator. Russia has good relations with almost all the players who are involved in this conflict, Russia has historical ties with South Yemen, Russia has good relations with all the factions that are there, except, of course, the type of radical al-Qaeda, and so on. That is, it turns out, Russia could play the role of a mediator in this process. I believe this is absolutely correct."