Alexander Karavaev: liberation of the occupied territories will have positive impact on the economy of Azerbaijan
The counter-offensive of the Azerbaijani army in response to the attack on Azerbaijani positions and peaceful villages by Armenia along the entire contact line could lead to a number of significant changes in the life of the South Caucasus. Alexander Karavaev, researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza.
“While the hostilities have just begun, there are still many unclear outcomes, which may be influenced by a whole range of military and political factors. First of all, the question is how quickly and actively Moscow will engage in attempts to end the clashes. Statements of the Russian Foreign Ministry are usually pretty formal, there should be direct negotiations between presidents Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev, without which it is difficult to talk about the real participation of Moscow," he said.
"It is clear that Armenia is currently knocking on the doors of the Kremlin, asking it to somehow stop Azerbaijan, but how will the Kremlin react is unknown," he noted.
“If we talk about the positive consequences, they are clear for Azerbaijan: liberation of even a part of the occupied territories, the return of even a few of the old settlements, positions and roads will be an objective success. Depending on how large-scale the success is, the consequences for the country's economy will become clear," he stressed.
"First of all, the emotional background will definitely improve and trade indicators will increase due to the more active work of shops and markets. Secondly, the dynamics of the military-industrial complex of Azerbaijan will go up, and this will also affect the final indicators of the national economy, there will definitely be a surge at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth," Alexander Karavaev said.