Amiran Gamkrelidze: According to the current prognosis, the peak of the virus spread will be in mid-November and the daily rate may reach 4-5 thousand
According to Amiran Gamkrelidze, head of the National Center for Disease Control and Public Health of Georgia, the COVID related November prognosis will be revisited, InterPressNews reports.
As Gamkrelidze noted, according to the prognosis made so far, the peak of the spread of the virus will come in mid-November, and daily rate may reach 4-5 thousand cases.
"There is no single tool that accurately determines the situation. We use three main tools in our modeling. These are some mathematical modeling tools where we enter a lot of different numbers, data and according to them these tools calculate the possible distribution. It does not show you exact numbers, but it shows you the trends. When we started working with these tools again by the end of September, all three of them were telling us that there would be a growth. The numbers are in accordance with prognosis to some extent, but I have to say it directly, we have a few more cases. Therefore, we have to recalculate the November prognosis. There was a trend which showed that the peak numbers were to come in November, with 3-4 or even 5 thousand cases, but we do not want to have 3 and 4 thousand of them", - said Gamkrelidze.