Can Trump's victory be considered victory for Russia?
Republican candidate, billionaire Donald Trump's victory in the 58th US presidential election is rather positive for Russia, but it will not bring it instant dividends, Russian experts told Vestnik Kavkaza, commenting on the US election results.
The director general of the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies and Initiatives, an advisor to the Director General of the MIA ‘Russia Today’, Veronika Krasheninnikova, noted that it is extremely difficult to make any plans for new Russian-US relations, according to Trump's campaign promises. "He made them largely because he wanted to contradict the establishment: if the White House spoke out against Putin, then he had to say something "for" him. Now we have to wait several days or even weeks before making any conclusions and be cautious about the future US politics," she warned.
"If we talk about the new US plans toward the Middle East and Syria, then now the entire US security apparatus, the armed forces and the entire defense industry are set to aggressive line in the region. Even if Trump wants, it will be very difficult to get away from it. In addition, his slogan 'Make America great again' implies a very active and likely aggressive foreign policy," Veronika Krasheninnikova predicts.
A member of the European Research Centre of the International Relations Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Olenchenko, expects that now Washington will at least change the approach to its relations with Russia, which would not happen after Hillary Clinton's victory. "In recent years, there was a gloomy line in relations between Russia and the United States, which has been generated by the US administration since the first term of Barack Obama. Now it will be interesting to see, first of all, whether Trump would be consistent with his promises to the United States and his hints of a desire to normalize relations with Russia," he noted.
At the same time we should not have great expectation for Trump and his team coming to power. "It is far from certain that we can hope for any deep sympathy to Russia, however, if he takes steps to normalize relations, it will be a serious change to the international situation. So far, it seems that Donald Trump would give priority to internal affairs. This means that the United States will generate fewer crises in the world, which will reduce the number of conflict points between the US and Russia," the expert stressed.
"It does not mean any review of the US relations with Russia. We have base contacts, the only question is how and in what form we will support them. I hope that Trump supports the concept of normal business relations and he will be engaged in the normalization of our ties. If we talk about sanctions, it is unlikely that they will be lifted instantly, but a resumption of normal contacts will create the necessary background to evade the sanctions regime," Vladimir Olenchenko concluded.
The deputy dean of the Faculty of Global Economics and International Affairs of the Higher School of Economics of the National Research University, Andrei Suzdaltsev, said that Trump, despite his lack of experience in international politics, means a greater stability for Russia. "Clinton's victory would mean unpredictably bad development, given her negative attitude to Putin and Russia. Trump is not a guarantee of positive development, but there is hope for compromise and cooperation, we did not even expect this with Democrats and Clinton," the analyst expressed cautious optimism.
Andrei Suzdaltsev agreed that due to Trump's inter-American agenda we can expect the declining US activity on the foreign policy front. "Of course, there will be differences from the Obama administration, after all, we do not see any experts in international relations in Trump's team. Еhe US foreign policy will be inactive in the beginning. Much will depend on Trump's team. Obviously, he will rely on his advisers and professionals in international affairs, unlike Clinton, who would be engaged in foreign policy herself," the deputy dean of the Faculty of Global Economics and International Affairs of the Higher School of Economics of the National Research University pointed out.