Dollar overcomes level of 80 rubles
The ruble has reached a new low. As of 11:15 am, the dollar increased by 1.46 rubles on the Moscow exchange and was worth 80.02 rubles, the euro rose 1.95 rubles and was worth 87.67 rubles.
Later, the rates dropped. As of 12:33, they were 79.86 and 87.33 rubles, respectively.
The associate professor of stock markets and financial engineering of RANEPA, Vasiliy Yakimkin, told Vestnik Kavkaza that the problems of the Russian currency will continue until the oil price stabilizes. "As long as the oil is under pressure, the ruble will also be under pressure. 44% of our budget is petrodollars, so the dependence is very serious. I think that by the end of the first quarter the oil price will be stabilized, a rebound to $30 per barrel is possible. As a result, the ruble will strengthen, so the dollar will be lower than 80 rubles, I hope," he said.
Yakimkin does not expect that the Central Bank will support the ruble in the current environment. "The Central Bank believes that the current level is acceptable and is consistent with the price of oil. The Central Bank will support the national currency if the US funds start selling rubles. But it is possible that the dollar will cost 90 rubles and oil prices fall to $25 per barrel. If the oil price falls to $20 per barrel, but the dollar costs 90 rubles, the Central Bank will not support the national currency – as long as it does not drop to 114 rubles per dollar," the economist said.
The expert pointed out that there are two categories of people and organizations in the country's leadership, some of them are interested in the strengthening of the ruble, and others in its devaluation.
"Our president should look closely at the recommendations of the Stolypin Club, which implies stabilizing the ruble with minimal losses," the expert concluded.
The professor of the RANEPA Chair of Finances, Money Circulation and Credit, Yuri Yudenkov, in his turn, suggested that the fall in the Russian national currency could last a very long time. "I have a very pessimistic view, our estimates show a rate of 100 rubles per dollar by April 1. That is, there are expectations that the decline in oil prices and growth of the dollar will continue further," he said.
At the same time, according to the expert, we shouldn't expect any active actions of the authorities to rectify the situation with the ruble. "For myself, I set the mark of 140 rubles per dollar when the Central Bank will start to make efforts to stop the fall in the currency. Having such an economy, the country does not need dollars, and those 300 billion, which we have in foreign exchange reserves, are enough," Yudenkov admitted.
In addition, the authorities have no leverage that would have a beneficial impact on the exchange rate. "The government is interested in this politically, but economically it has no capacity to do it," he explained.