Experts: Russian economy has adapted to shocks
The Russian economy has adapted to shocks as a whole, the head of the Economic Department of the Institute for Energy and Finance, Marcel Salikhov, said at the round table titled 'The macroeconomic situation in Russia and the world: estimates and forecasts', which was held in the framework of the Economic Club 'Brainstorm'.
He noted that the external conditions cannot be called favorable today. "There is a slowdown in growth, as well as possibility of sharp, purely global shocks, which are not always explainable," a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza cites him as saying.
"Oil prices have grown up more or less, but there is still a disagreement among experts regarding the future outlook. We have the continuing imbalance in the oil market, while the gap between supply and demand have a negative effect on prices," Salikhov stressed.
"However, if we talk about the situation in the Russian economy, it has generally adapted to shocks. It's not so bad as we may think. The corporate sector's profit has grown in the last year. There was a devaluation, ruble costs decreased, which gives companies a way to get a real profit," the head of the Economic Department of the Institute for Energy and Finance explained.
International experts are concerned about the passivity of the Russian economic policy in the first place.
The First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy, Sergei Kalashnikov, appreciated the situation in the country is a strange one. "On the one hand, the current economic situation is being described as a crisis, at the same time, no decisions to change the situation are taken," he noted.
"In addition to the economic processes in the country, there are political processes, which are not yet ripe for decision-making. Thus, rejection of the dollar would be a good option, but the situation is not yet ripe in political terms," the First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy said.
"It is clear that this is not only Russia's problem. The whole world is in the situation of a protracted crisis. But some countries are going into the lead due to the development of new technologies. And the chances that Russia will be among the countries unable to upgrade are very high," Kalashnikov warned.
He also drew attention to the need for economic literacy to have successful import substitution. "We must increase the export potential, as the lack of understanding of the fundamental requirements is crucial for this economic situation," the expert explained.
According to the First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy, Russia's policy can be called speculative, so the cause of the crisis is not oil prices.
"Inflation is a double-edged sword. It is bad for people, but it is good for production. Therefore, we have to find a median," the expert concluded.
The head of the Centre of Long-Term Financial Planning, Macroeconomic Analysis and Financial Statistics at the Financial Research Institute of the Russian Ministry of Finance, Christina Shvandar, recalled that the serious condition of the Russian economy is aggravated by the problems in the world economy.
"We see a slowdown in the Chinese economy. Accordingly, growth in developed economies is unlikely to have a great affect on the world economy as a whole. But global commodity markets are important for us," she noted.
"Prices are gradually coming down to the level of 2006. It is even possible that they fall to the level of 2000-2001. It shouldn't be a strong shock for our economy, but there won't be any improvement either," the expert pointed out.
"The dependence of the ruble on oil prices remains strong," the head of the Centre for Long-Term Financial Planning, Macroeconomic Analysis and Financial Statistics added.
The deputy director of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the RAS, Alexander Shirov, said that the financial position of Russian companies did not deteriorate following last year. "In particular, the slight rise in prices for energy resources contributed to it. One way or another, there was an increase in competitive capacity," he explained.
"In our opinion, hopes that the rise in oil prices will help to improve the economic situation are groundless. We still need modernization," Alexander Shirov stressed.