Markov, Karavaev, Mikheev: Yerevan may recognize Karabakh
The separatist entity in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan has some chances to get recognition from Yerevan, Russian political scientists Alexander Karavaev, Sergey Markov and Sergey Mikheev stated in an interview with the correspondents of Vestnik Kavkaza.
Recall that today the infromation appeared on the fact that the Armenian government expressed its approval of the draft law at the today’s session, envisaging the recognition of self-proclaimed Nagorno Karabakh Republic. Later, a spokesperson for the Armenian prime minister has provided a clarification on cabinet meeting, saying that the executive has for now approved only a conclusion enclosed to the bill.
Soon, a spokesman for the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov voiced a negative reaction to the "approval". "We are closely watching decisions being made in this context," Peskov said. "Of course, we continue to hope that the parties to the conflict will avoid any steps that may disrupt a quite fragile truce and in general trigger the escalation of tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh."
Although technically the Armenian authorities backed down after the informational tryout, the recognition of independence of separatist republic is possible in the current conditions, experts believe. "Armenia is dealing with this seriously. There is an an element of trade here: it is likely that in response to any concessions by Russia and Azerbaijan, the Armenian leadership will agree to not recognize the "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic". But it is a very powerful algorithm - convene a session of the parliament - in most cases, it ends with adoption of corresponding decision. So the probability of recognition is very high," Sergey Markov expects.
"I have no information on the actual sentiments in Armenia, but the probability of recognition is quite high. Another thing is that the Armenian authorities should understand that it may lead to the escalation of the situation - and there is no guarantee that such decision will be supported by all external partners. On the other hand, it is clear what triggered all of this - a recent escalation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Apparently, the Armenian authorities believe that they should react somehow, including in terms of legal measures," Sergey Mikheev pointed out.
Alexander Karavaev stressed that the consequences of such action of Yerevan will be very multifaceted, "it can be said that Pandora's box is opening." "Armenia won't be able to compensate for all the negative consequences of such decision, it is not Russia. A chance that Azerbaijan will leave the negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh is also very high, but on the other hand, after receiving such blow from Armenia, the negotiations can reach a new level," he thinks.