Moody's: Trump presidency would result recession and unemployment
Donald Trump’s presidency would “significantly” weaken the country, driving the US into a “lengthy recession” with nearly 3.5 million job losses and a 7% unemployment rate, according to a Moody’s Analytics analysis released Monday.
“Trump’s economic proposals will result in a more isolated US economy. Cross-border trade and immigration will be significantly diminished, and with less trade and immigration, foreign direct investment will also be reduced,” Mark Zandi, Chris Lafakis, Dan White and Adam Ozimek wrote in the report.
His policies would also diminish the country’s growth prospects, grow federal government deficits, increase the nation’s debt and finance his “mix of much lower tax revenues and few cuts in spending” with “substantially more government borrowing,” Politico reports.
“Driven largely by these factors, the economy will be significantly weaker if Mr. Trump’s economic proposals are adopted. Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office,” the authors wrote. “By the end of his presidency, there are close to 3.5 million fewer jobs and the unemployment rate rises to as high as 7%, compared with below 5% today. During Mr. Trump’s presidency, the average American household’s after-inflation income will stagnate, and stock prices and real house values will decline.”
Moody’s Analytics will also release an analysis of Hillary Clinton’s proposals.