Russian Finance Ministry publishes ruble exchange rate forecast for next 20 years
Russia's Finance Ministry published forecast of main parameters of the Russian economy for a long-term period. According to this data, average dollar exchange rate will rise to 82.5 rubles in 2031-2035. It is reported that this data is included in the draft long-term budget forecast, presented by the Ministry to the State Duma together with budget.
However, the Ministry noted that it was talking about the nominal exchange rate, whereas the real effective ruble exchange rate will be "relatively stable". A serious increase in the nominal exchange rate of the dollar is explained by "inflation differential", in other words, difference in the prices growth rates in Russia and the United States.
It is reported that in 2017-2020 the average nominal dollar exchange rate will be 64.8 rubles, in the next five-years - 71.5 rubles, in 2026-2030 - 77.1 rubles.
Overall, according to basic scenario growth of the global economy will slow down. Russia's GDP growth rate will be around 2.3-2.4% in 2021-2035.
According to the Finance Ministry, domestic demand will be the main driver of economic growth. In addition, due to relatively low interest rates and "predictable environment," an increase in investment activity is also expected.
According to a conservative scenario, the US currency will grow from 68.4 rubles in 2017-2020 to 84.2 rubles in 2031-2035. This forecast takes negative external shocks effect on the Russian economy into account.
Third scenario predicts that for the specified period the dollar will be traded at 75.6 rubles. External conditions will remain similar to the basic scenario, but a set of government measures aimed at eliminating constraints on production will create conditions for the growth of the Russian economy at a rate not lower than the world average.