Russian economy wants dollar to be cheap
According to a survey conducted by the Gaidar Institute among heads of Russian industrial enterprises in March, 52 rubles per dollar is the exchange rate of the national currency, which is optimal for the Russian industry.
Pharmaceutical companies consider optimal the exchange rate of 42 rubles per dollar, which is explained by their dependence on imported raw materials and equipment. Metallurgical enterprises consider optimal the exchange rate of 61 rubles per dollar: it gives them the opportunity to export their products. The chemical industry has approximately the same preferences, RBC reports.
A single point of view on the optimal exchange rate of the Russian currency was demonstrated by the light and food industry (48-49 rubles per dollar). Now, because of the almost zero competition from foreign manufacturers, food producers are interested in a strong ruble.
A year ago, this indicator was almost at the same level (51 rubles per dollar).
The head of the Regional Banking Association, the chairman of the Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Innovation and Entrepreneurship Development, Anatoly Aksakov, speaking with a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza, said that Russian industry, not connected with the processing of minerals, still largely depends not on imported raw materials, but on equipment.
"Such equipment makes it possible to produce cheaper and high-quality products, which is necessary for economic modernization. As for raw materials, our dependence on it is not so great, as it can be produced on the territory of Russia. Therefore, a low exchange rate should stimulate the development of production components for raw materials in Russia," the deputy noted.
Speaking about the need to maintain the current dollar exchange rate, he pointed out that the rate should be maintained at the current level. "The exchange rate should be stable, as in this case it is much easier to predict the costs and the specific market environment," the analyst said.
In addition, he told whether the Russian Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance take into account similar opinions of commodity producers when developing their exchange rate strategies. "The Bank of Russia says that it is guided by the floating ruble exchange rate. That is, it is not going to interfere in the exchange rate policy. The Finance Ministry is more cautious in its statements, as strengthening of the ruble may work against replenishment of the state budget," Anatoly Aksakov summed up.
The associate professor of the department of finance, money circulation and credit of RANEPA, Maxim Safonov, in turn, noted that the industry, which is not related to processing of minerals is still heavily dependent on imported raw materials. "All those linked to imports are interested in making the dollar exchange rate lower. And all those linked to exports want it to be higher," the economist explained.
In addition, speaking about the need to maintain the current dollar exchange rate, he noted that the Central Bank does not support the position of its head Elvira Nabiullina, who believes that no intervention is needed, since the course should be formed in a natural way.
He also pointed out that the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, when developing their exchange rate strategies, take into account similar opinions of commodity producers. "For the Ministry of Finance, which is responsible for the filling of the budget, the higher the rate, the better. For the Central Bank this is not a matter of principle, it needs to maintain the money supply. The Ministry of Economic Development is responsible for development, so the lower the course, the better for it," Maxim Safonov concluded.