Two main challenges for economic recovery in Russia
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2021-2023, the recovery of the county’s economy may face two main challenges.
The department called the recession in the global economy and sanitary/epidemiological restrictions, which are being lifted unevenly, as challenges. "Part of the sanitary and epidemiological requirements for the enterprises and organizations will be long-term," the Ministry of Economic Development noted, TASS reports.
The ministry stressed that the sanitary and epidemiological situation will determine the speed of economic recovery.
The second wave of Covid-19 remains the key source of risk, but it is absent in the baseline and conservative version of the economic recovery forecast.
"The high uncertainty in the development of the world economy is indicated by a wide range of forecasts of analysts and international organizations on global growth for the current and next year: from -3% to -5% in 2020 and from 3.5% to 6.5% in 2021 ", the forecast reads.
The uneven cancellation of quarantine measures around the world is also hampering economic recovery.
The main industries that will become drivers of economic growth in 2021-2023 are information technology (IT), construction and transport sectors, investment sectors and export-oriented manufacturing industries. Export-oriented industries will be the growth leaders. Higher growth rates than in previous years are expected in education as the main factor in improving the quality of human capital.
"At the same time, under the influence of weak external demand and the current conditions of the OPEC + deal until 2022, the growth rates of the extractive industry in 2021 will be moderate - 1.2% (in 2020 - a decrease of 8.4%)," the report of the ministry reads.