Weak ruble ceased to whip on inflation
The slowdown in inflation from 0.031% in January to 0.021% in February 2016 indicates that the devaluation effect has exhausted itself, experts note.
"We believe that the effect of the devaluation of the ruble has either been exhausted itself or it will cease to be felt in the near future. Our view is supported by the deflation in important segments of the food products in February," Sberbank CIB analysts said.
The document states that the ruble exchange rate is "floating" now. However, according to experts, this state is unstable due to the high inflation in comparison with the level of developed countries. Despite this fact, Sberbank CIB experts predict a new appreciation of the ruble in the case of a new increase in oil prices. According to them, the inflation this year will be about 8%.
"The slowdown in inflation will provide the Bank of Russia additional opportunities to reduce interest rates and will encourage the Ministry of Finance to finance the budget deficit by increasing the volume of the bond issues, not only from the Reserve Fund," the report added.
Sberbank CIB analysts said that the increase in oil prices would help in this situation. According to the report, in general, the Russian economy has adapted to the current level of oil prices at $ 30-35 per barrel. If the average oil price will not fall below $ 30 per barrel, even a recovery in domestic demand is possible in the second half of the year," RBC cited the document as saying.