Why Coronavirus fears hit ruble exchange rate?

Why Coronavirus fears hit ruble exchange rate?

The dollar exchange rate increased to 64.01 rubles at the Moscow Exchange today.

As of 11:26 Moscow time, the dollar was 64.04 rubles (+0.23%), and the euro - 70. 96 rubles (+0.11%).

For the last time, the dollar exchange rate was at this rate on December 4, 2019.

The ruble is declining against the backdrop of cheaper oil: international benchmark Brent crude futures declined 1.1% to $56 per barrel on the ICE Exchange in London, TASS reported.

The professor at the department of the stock market and investments at the Higher School of Economics, Alexander Abramov, speaking to Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that the ruble has become infected with the coronavirus from the global financial market. "The fact is that this event caused a drop in stock markets around the world. Outflows of foreign capital have accelerated in Russia due to the coronavirus, and this was the main channel of influence on the ruble exchange rate," he explained.

The dependence of the ruble on coronavirus will continue for some time. "There are no obvious reasons for the exchange rate to continue dropping, but in many respects the further dynamics will depend on whether the public will be confident that it is localized and the epidemic doesn't  increase anymore. If they develop confidence, the fears of a global recession will go away, which means that the ruble will recover at some stage," Alexander Abramov stressed.

The head of the department of stock markets and financial engineering of the Faculty of Finance and the Banking Business of RANEPA, former deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Konstantin Korischenko, indicated an indirect link between coronavirus and a decrease in ruble. "The negative impact of the epidemic is mediated primarily by trade data, the state of the Chinese economy and, of course, declining oil prices," he said.

"What will happen next with the ruble depends on the coronavirus morbidity, mortality and recovery rates, as they will continue to affect China’s economic indicators and, consequently, oil prices. The ruble will reflect this dynamic: if  the coronavirus situation is stabilized, the ruble exchange rate will increase along with the markets," Konstantin Korishchenko expects.


Vestnik Kavkaza

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