Will Russian economy start to grow?

Will Russian economy start to grow?

Russia's economy may grow 1.1% this year and 1.5% next after contracting in 2016, a Bloomberg survey of 39 economists shows.

Earlier, Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin said that Russia's economy could grow by 2% in 2017 as long as there are no external shocks such as a renewed fall in oil prices.

Russia's Economic Development Ministry’s official outlook for 2017 is 0.6% [GDP] growth. 

"We expect 2017 growth to be greater than forecasted. In the second half of 2017 GDP growth may exceed 2%, which means that it may be higher than 1% already in the first half of the year," Oreshkin said in January.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov believes that GDP growth rate may be almost twice as high ― about 1-1.2%.

Professor of the RANEPA faculty of Finance, Money Circulation and Credit, Yuri Yudenkov, speaking to Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that GDP growing to such indicators is a quite real forecast, especially through performing defense orders. "There are huge volumes of industrial production. In value terms, GDP will certainly increase by this amount, there is no doubt. An even greater growth is possible," the expert stressed.

However, he explained the difference in the forecasts of Bloomberg and the Economic Development Ministry. "Considering the scale of our economy, all of it is in the range of error. Both 0.6% and 1.1% are rounded to 1%," Yudenkov said.

At the same time, he expressed the opinion that such growth figures are not as significant for Russia. "We need the higher growth, because the depreciation of fixed assets and equipment is colossal. But the fact that the assessment was not negative gives us hope. That is, the defense order growth gives the growth of GDP," Yuri Yudenkov concluded.


Vestnik Kavkaza

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