Will Saakashvili be sentenced to 30 years?
The former president of Georgia, the current Governor of Ukraine's Odessa region, Mikheil Saakashvili, may be sentenced to 30 years in prison by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague – and this is the mildest sentence that awaits him in the case of the five-day war in 2008.
After considering the materials provided by the Russian side, it was decided to initiate a criminal case and to investigate the events of the five-day war in South Ossetia. At the same time, Kommersant reports that Saakashvili turned out to be the main accused in this case.
According to the experts, on the basis of this case the ex-president may spend his life in jail.
The head of the Center for Global Studies, Nana Devdariani, told Vestnik Kavkaza that she is skeptical about the prospects for a fair trial of Saakashvili. "In general, all international organizations have long been turned into political tools. If a political decision is made, Saakashvili will be judged. But most likely, the Americans will cover their client till the end," she said.
In this regard, the expert expects that in the case of a guilty verdict, Saakashvili will be quickly flown to the United States. "If there is a court decision, of course, he will be put in jail in spite of his current position. However, many international criminals have fled from the judgments of the ICC," Nana Devdariani said.
The head of the Institute of Management Strategy, Petre Mamradze, in his turn, expressed hope that the investigation of the International Criminal Court will be objective. "I published a documentary book about Saakashvili's crimes, there is enough material. As in Georgia and abroad, there are many public documents proving Saakashvili's serious crimes against all citizens of Georgia, against Ossetians, Abkhazians and Russian peacekeepers, when he gave the order to bomb Tskhinvali," he pointed out.
"I require the current government, which for three consecutive years didn't move a finger to involve all these materials on Saakashvili's crime, to fulfill their direct duties and provide evidence of his crimes to the international court. It is pointless to await reconciliation with Abkhazians and Ossetians until Saakashvili's imprisonment," the expert said.
At the same time, Mamradze agrees that it would be difficult to put the former president of Georgia in jail. "He is the current head of the administration, the governor of the Odessa region, in spite of all the warnings. I hope that the Kiev leadership will have to take realistic actions against him under the pressure of facts," the analyst concluded.